Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5843 SHV 07:16 → IAH 08:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5959 SHV 17:56 → IAH 19:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5843 SkyWest	SHV 07:16	IAH 08:51	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5804 SkyWest	SHV 09:22	IAH 10:36	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5837 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 15:35	IAH 16:50	15%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 5959 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:56	IAH 19:10	18%	6%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON