Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 654 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:35	ATL 14:15	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 809 Delta Flight history →	SJC 12:40	ATL 20:24	7%	3%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	7h 49m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 40m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Seattle	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	11h 27m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	46m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	7h 02m	90%	81%
Alaska Details →	SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → ATL 23:59AS 727	10h 40m	100%	80%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:18 → ATL 16:48AA 2398	7h 47m	97%	76%
American Details →	SJC 12:49 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50AA 2391	7h 01m	100%	76%
American Details →	SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358	53m Phoenix	PHX 08:56 → ATL 15:44AA 883	6h 44m	78%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762	52m Seattle	SEA 09:05 → ATL 16:57AS 334	7h 49m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON