tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3790 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3790 Southwest SJC 06:26 AUS 11:54 4% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 300 Southwest SJC 13:56 AUS 19:24 19% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358 1h 09m Phoenix PHX 09:12 → AUS 13:38AA 1059 5h 38m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 14:31 → AUS 17:17DL 2687 8h 57m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 44m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25DL 2749 7h 15m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m Seattle SEA 17:50 → AUS 23:53DL 848 10h 18m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 1h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728 5h 50m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → AUS 15:48AA 2103 7h 47m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762 47m Seattle SEA 09:00 → AUS 15:04AS 352 6h 56m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON