Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1936 Southwest	SJC 13:06	BNA 19:28	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612	9h 15m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 18:31 → BNA 00:33 +1DL 858	7h 34m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	58m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	6h 51m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	7h 04m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	7h 25m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	10h 19m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205	6h 28m	94%	81%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:52 → BNA 14:57AA 1084	6h 56m	94%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076	6h 19m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON