Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 371 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 371 SJC 07:26 → BUR 08:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3799 SJC 17:16 → BUR 18:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 371 Southwest	SJC 07:26	BUR 08:48	3%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 472 Southwest	SJC 09:38	BUR 11:00	5%	2%	1.5%	no record
WN 3797 Southwest	SJC 12:23	BUR 13:45	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 1941 Southwest	SJC 14:58	BUR 16:20	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 3799 Southwest	SJC 17:16	BUR 18:38	14%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON