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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 55m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 10h 29m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 7h 03m 93% 81%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:32 → BWI 18:50AA 2805 9h 49m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251 8h 45m 93% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762 50m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 7h 56m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON