Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 35m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 49m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	9h 02m	99%	76%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → DCA 18:57AA 2520	9h 56m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:54 → SEA 09:59AS 1304	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59AS 2	11h 05m	99%	69%
American Details →	SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	8h 01m	89%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON