Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3802 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3802 SJC 06:06 → DEN 09:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3805 SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3802 Southwest	SJC 06:06	DEN 09:46	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1879 Southwest	SJC 09:16	DEN 13:01	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2013 United	SJC 08:48	DEN 12:44	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 421 United	SJC 10:45	DEN 14:30	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2076 United	SJC 12:56	DEN 16:41	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3804 Southwest	SJC 12:26	DEN 16:05	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3805 Southwest	SJC 14:32	DEN 18:11	24%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON