Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3686 at 10:51, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3686 Southwest	SJC 10:51	EUG 12:33	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 16:46 → SEA 18:52AS 745	3h 57m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	7h 13m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	98%	90%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon	2h 59m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	5h 37m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	97%	82%
Alaska Details →	SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	6h 41m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON