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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 33m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:49 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 1h 24m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 8h 10m 100% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 09:46 → PDX 11:31AS 2256 · flown by Horizon 3h 25m Portland PDX 14:56 → EWR 22:54AS 642 10h 08m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 8h 19m 97% 65%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762 1h 42m Seattle SEA 09:55 → EWR 17:41AS 292 8h 33m 97% 63%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:37 → EWR 19:12AA 2861 10h 11m 98% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON