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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3534 at 11:46, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3534 Southwest SJC 11:46 GEG 13:57 10% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762 1h 42m Seattle SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon 4h 52m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 12m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 23m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Seattle SEA 15:40 → GEG 16:55DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358 2h 19m Phoenix PHX 10:22 → GEG 13:21AA 540 7h 21m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 1h 52m Seattle SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:32 → GEG 18:21DL 1219 4h 41m 89% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Seattle SEA 10:50 → GEG 12:11DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 93% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON