Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2739 at 13:51, 28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2739 SJC 13:51 → HNL 16:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 853 SJC 07:02 → HNL 09:27 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2739 Southwest	SJC 13:51	HNL 16:25	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 838 Alaska	SJC 06:59	HNL 09:49	37%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 9677 Alaska	SJC 14:09	HNL 16:42	37%	11%	0.8%	no record
AS 853 Alaska	SJC 07:02	HNL 09:27	37%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	1h 31m Kahului	OGG 10:52 → HNL 11:34AS 1095	7h 34m	96%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON