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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 44m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 8h 55m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 3h 24m Seattle SEA 15:54 → IAD 23:39AS 675 10h 20m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 33m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:58 → IAD 18:13AA 1863 9h 12m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 6h 49m 86% 72%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → IAD 22:54AA 2254 7h 56m 87% 63%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762 1h 00m Seattle SEA 09:13 → IAD 17:11AS 737 8h 03m 80% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON