tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 19m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:31DL 1131 8h 56m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 6h 08m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 1h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 6h 10m 93% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762 2h 39m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 9h 08m 100% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358 50m Phoenix PHX 08:53 → IAH 13:50AA 2357 5h 50m 69% 56%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:54 → SEA 09:59AS 1304 53m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 7h 22m 65% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON