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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 7h 40m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 7h 47m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Seattle SEA 16:06 → JFK 00:03 +1DL 1044 9h 28m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671 8h 40m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 9h 55m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358 2h 02m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → JFK 18:15AA 2339 9h 15m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:20 → JFK 18:10AA 1058 9h 09m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:49 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832 8h 09m 84% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 56m Seattle SEA 13:26 → JFK 21:14AS 34 7h 55m 73% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON