Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Phoenix, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SJC 05:55 → PHX 07:53AA 1358	2h 47m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	11h 11m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:06 → SEA 08:13AS 762	1h 45m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02AS 518	9h 56m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311	3h 29m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238	11h 46m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953	3h 39m Kahului	OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030	9h 36m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON