Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3810 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3810 SJC 06:36 → LAS 08:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1590 SJC 14:12 → LAS 15:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3810 Southwest	SJC 06:36	LAS 08:11	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3328 Southwest	SJC 07:51	LAS 09:27	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2627 Southwest	SJC 08:41	LAS 10:17	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1699 Southwest	SJC 10:46	LAS 12:21	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2038 Southwest	SJC 12:56	LAS 14:31	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 4363 Southwest	SJC 17:16	LAS 18:51	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3812 Southwest	SJC 15:36	LAS 17:11	18%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3811 Southwest	SJC 14:36	LAS 16:11	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
F9 1590 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 14:12	LAS 15:50	29%	10%	1.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON