Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1160 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1160 SJC 06:41 → LAX 08:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2477 SJC 16:01 → LAX 17:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1160 Southwest	SJC 06:41	LAX 08:05	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	SJC 11:42	LAX 13:03	9%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 1362 Delta	SJC 06:59	LAX 08:19	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	10%	5%	0.6%	92%
WN 2462 Southwest	SJC 12:26	LAX 13:49	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2062 Southwest	SJC 10:21	LAX 11:45	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	SJC 16:22	LAX 17:49	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	SJC 09:52	LAX 11:19	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 770 Southwest	SJC 14:06	LAX 15:30	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2477 Southwest	SJC 16:01	LAX 17:25	18%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON