Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756	7h 29m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	10h 52m	99%	72%
American Details →	SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:02 → LGA 23:51AA 1375	8h 53m	91%	65%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:51 → LGA 18:30AA 1806	9h 29m	98%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON