tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:35, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 10h 13m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 2h 53m Seattle SEA 15:23 → MCO 23:44AS 420 10h 25m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 7h 48m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 9h 01m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 46m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 7h 44m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056 7h 15m 83% 68%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:31 → MCO 17:21AA 1692 8h 20m 97% 67%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:20AA 2186 7h 22m 80% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON