Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358	1h 13m Phoenix	PHX 09:16 → MIA 16:47AA 1968	7h 47m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	7h 59m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719	8h 48m	99%	71%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:55 → MIA 17:02AA 2461	8h 01m	95%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON