Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2156 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:20	MSP 11:59	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	SJC 13:10	MSP 18:44	8%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 40m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	5h 47m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536	8h 05m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	9h 43m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:54 → SEA 09:59AS 1304	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSP 17:29AS 772	7h 35m	99%	78%
American Details →	SJC 12:49 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	1h 59m Phoenix	PHX 16:45 → MSP 22:01AA 2820	7h 12m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	5h 14m	81%	70%
American Details →	SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806	7h 23m	89%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358	48m Phoenix	PHX 08:51 → MSP 14:08AA 408	6h 08m	66%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON