tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:59, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2740 United SJC 06:35 ORD 13:02 10% 4% 1.0% no record
UA 1650 United SJC 14:09 ORD 20:38 20% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 10h 03m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 45m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358 2h 16m Phoenix PHX 10:19 → ORD 16:05AA 332 8h 05m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 8h 37m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 51m Los Angeles LAX 17:15 → ORD 23:18DL 1634 6h 19m 87% 73%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 7h 50m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 14:40 → ORD 18:57DL 2377 7h 12m 98% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:13AS 762 2h 16m Seattle SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:44AS 429 8h 36m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:58 → DFW 17:30AA 2046 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:22 → ORD 20:56AA 2656 6h 58m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON