Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3829 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3829 SJC 06:16 → PDX 08:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 694 SJC 14:36 → PDX 16:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3829 Southwest	SJC 06:16	PDX 08:12	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 754 Alaska	SJC 07:00	PDX 08:51	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 3379 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:52	PDX 13:54	6%	3%	0.5%	95%
WN 3830 Southwest	SJC 13:56	PDX 15:52	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 694 Alaska	SJC 14:36	PDX 16:27	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2256 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 09:46	PDX 11:31	4%	4%	1.9%	96%
AS 2188 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 12:03	PDX 13:48	33%	14%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON