Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3832 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3832 SJC 06:21 → PHX 08:19 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3379 SJC 16:51 → PHX 18:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3832 Southwest	SJC 06:21	PHX 08:19	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3659 Southwest	SJC 08:26	PHX 10:24	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1358 American Flight history →	SJC 06:00	PHX 08:03	6%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 3834 Southwest	SJC 10:21	PHX 12:19	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1690 Southwest	SJC 15:11	PHX 17:09	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SJC 12:49	PHX 14:46	16%	4%	0.8%	97%worse than usual
WN 3379 Southwest	SJC 16:51	PHX 18:49	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON