Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4157 at 07:46, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4157 Southwest	SJC 07:46	RNO 08:55	2%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 09m	98%	90%
American Details →	SJC 06:00 → PHX 08:03AA 1358	2h 19m Phoenix	PHX 10:22 → RNO 12:27AA 1437	6h 27m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:34 → PDX 11:35AS 2274 · flown by Horizon	3h 34m Portland	PDX 15:09 → RNO 16:48AS 2087 · flown by Horizon	7h 14m	100%	82%
American Details →	SJC 12:49 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	2h 10m Phoenix	PHX 16:56 → RNO 19:04AA 2869	6h 15m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	SJC 06:08 → SEA 08:12AS 762	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 11:53 → RNO 13:50AS 273	7h 42m	100%	73%
Frontier Details →	SJC 13:27 → LAS 15:13F9 1590	1h 32m Las Vegas	LAS 16:45 → RNO 18:22F9 4241	4h 55m	87%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON