Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4341 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4341 SJC 06:41 → SAN 08:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1307 SJC 17:41 → SAN 19:16 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4341 Southwest	SJC 06:41	SAN 08:15	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3058 Southwest	SJC 09:01	SAN 10:36	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 496 Southwest	SJC 08:01	SAN 09:36	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3653 Southwest	SJC 11:31	SAN 13:06	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 367 Southwest	SJC 10:21	SAN 11:56	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2974 Southwest	SJC 13:01	SAN 14:36	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 1448 Alaska	SJC 07:24	SAN 08:52	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 484 Southwest	SJC 15:31	SAN 17:05	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 3039 SkyWest	SJC 10:12	SAN 11:51	27%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 3625 Southwest	SJC 16:51	SAN 18:26	30%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 3669 Southwest	SJC 14:01	SAN 15:36	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1307 Southwest	SJC 17:41	SAN 19:16	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
AS 2213 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 20:12	SAN 21:48	41%	8%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON