Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3786 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3786 SJC 06:06 → SEA 08:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 659 SJC 14:08 → SEA 16:13 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3786 Southwest	SJC 06:06	SEA 08:17	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	11%	4%	0.5%	95%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	SEA 13:55	12%	5%	0.5%	92%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:09	14%	5%	0.5%	85%
WN 1594 Southwest	SJC 13:06	SEA 15:17	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 762 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 06:08	SEA 08:13	20%	3%	0.8%	78%
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	23%	5%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 745 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 16:46	SEA 18:52	24%	6%	0.7%	83%
AS 1304 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 07:54	SEA 09:59	27%	4%	0.8%	79%
AS 659 Alaska	SJC 14:08	SEA 16:13	31%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON