Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1314 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1314 SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 428 SJC 14:06 → SLC 17:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1314 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:00	SLC 08:55	4%	2%	0.4%	95%
DL 4026 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:45	SLC 12:41	6%	4%	0.5%	95%
DL 1254 Delta Flight history →	SJC 13:40	SLC 16:33	10%	5%	0.4%	94%
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SJC 17:01	SLC 19:54	10%	6%	0.4%	94%
WN 428 Southwest	SJC 14:06	SLC 17:02	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON