Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3846 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3846 SJC 07:01 → SNA 08:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3454 SJC 16:33 → SNA 18:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3846 Southwest	SJC 07:01	SNA 08:31	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3847 Southwest	SJC 08:32	SNA 10:02	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3848 Southwest	SJC 10:02	SNA 11:32	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3849 Southwest	SJC 12:02	SNA 13:32	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 971 Southwest	SJC 13:23	SNA 14:53	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3400 Southwest	SJC 15:03	SNA 16:33	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3454 Southwest	SJC 16:33	SNA 18:03	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON