tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1780 at 14:08 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1780 Delta Flight history → SJU 14:08 BOS 18:19 24% 9% 0.7% 80%
B6 462 JetBlue Flight history → SJU 20:07 BOS 00:13 37% 18% 1.0% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 3h 25m Newark EWR 08:35 → BOS 09:51UA 1110 8h 51m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 19:57 → BOS 22:35DL 457 9h 38m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:22 → BOS 15:00DL 1293 7h 30m 97% 79%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 04:56 → MCO 08:11B6 234 1h 56m Orlando MCO 10:07 → BOS 13:20B6 552 8h 24m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 3h 00m New York JFK 14:30 → BOS 16:08DL 5595 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 1h 32m Houston IAH 12:25 → BOS 17:25UA 1226 10h 25m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → SJU 06:01 → MIA 09:02AA 3089 1h 24m Miami MIA 10:26 → BOS 13:52AA 2134 7h 51m 91% 71%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 05:01 → JFK 08:54B6 2904 2h 31m New York JFK 11:25 → BOS 12:36B6 2918 7h 35m 99% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON