tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 8h 33m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 1h 59m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 7h 34m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 7h 11m 94% 76%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454 3h 06m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:53 → BUF 23:05B6 866 9h 00m 96% 69%
FrontierDetails → SJU 10:39 → MCO 14:01F9 2867 1h 07m Orlando MCO 15:08 → BUF 18:09F9 1692 7h 30m 90% 67%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 10:25 → JFK 14:27B6 904 2h 19m New York JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26B6 1202 8h 01m 96% 65%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 11:10 → MCO 14:24B6 1334 3h 31m Orlando MCO 17:55 → BUF 20:46B6 1586 9h 36m 98% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON