Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3855 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3855 SJU 05:31 → BWI 09:51 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2265 SJU 16:27 → BWI 20:53 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3855 Southwest	SJU 05:31	BWI 09:51	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2124 Southwest	SJU 17:36	BWI 21:54	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2265 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 16:27	BWI 20:53	25%	8%	1.2%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 17m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27B6 2994	6h 27m	78%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON