Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 783 at 15:40, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 783 American Flight history →	SJU 15:40	CLT 19:39	15%	4%	0.8%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	9h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 01m	96%	86%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 17m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	9h 02m	97%	80%
Frontier Details →	SJU 06:57 → MCO 10:20F9 2981	2h 54m Orlando	MCO 13:14 → CLT 15:08F9 2452	8h 11m	97%	78%
American Details →	SJU 06:01 → MIA 09:02AA 3089	49m Miami	MIA 09:51 → CLT 12:03AA 1398	6h 02m	91%	77%
Frontier Details →	SJU 00:56 → PHL 05:04F9 2695	2h 56m Philadelphia	PHL 08:00 → CLT 09:56F9 2387	9h 00m	97%	77%
American Details →	SJU 11:52 → MIA 14:50AA 1341	1h 11m Miami	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	6h 30m	91%	69%
Frontier Details →	SJU 11:51 → MIA 14:51F9 2283	4h 00m Miami	MIA 18:51 → CLT 21:09F9 3700	9h 18m	99%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON