Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1368 United Flight history →	SJU 13:40	DEN 18:15	11%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 30m	99%	86%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 40m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	9h 17m	98%	85%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 05:01 → JFK 08:54B6 2904	3h 11m New York	JFK 12:05 → DEN 14:11B6 1497	11h 10m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	9h 46m	100%	82%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	2h 35m Newark	EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758	11h 01m	94%	80%
Frontier Details →	SJU 06:57 → MCO 10:20F9 2981	2h 47m Orlando	MCO 13:07 → DEN 15:18F9 4919	10h 21m	97%	80%
American Details →	SJU 06:01 → MIA 09:02AA 3089	50m Miami	MIA 09:52 → DEN 12:08AA 2436	8h 07m	91%	76%
Frontier Details →	SJU 10:39 → MCO 14:01F9 2867	3h 31m Orlando	MCO 17:32 → DEN 19:34F9 3311	10h 55m	97%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SJU 16:39 → MIA 19:36AA 967	1h 00m Miami	MIA 20:36 → DEN 22:48AA 1292	8h 09m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON