tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3159 American Flight history → SJU 16:20 DFW 20:39 20% 6% 0.8% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161 10h 14m 100% 85%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 2h 55m Orlando MCO 09:05 → DFW 11:04F9 2885 8h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921 9h 15m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:46 → DFW 16:16UA 1388 10h 16m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 1h 50m Newark EWR 07:00 → DFW 09:28UA 1494 9h 28m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173 3h 23m Newark EWR 21:02 → DFW 23:49UA 1277 11h 24m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → SJU 06:01 → MIA 09:02AA 3089 1h 58m Miami MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 8h 14m 91% 71%
AmericanDetails → SJU 11:52 → MIA 14:50AA 1341 1h 49m Miami MIA 16:39 → DFW 18:49AA 3259 7h 57m 93% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → SJU 00:56 → PHL 05:04F9 2695 52m Philadelphia PHL 05:56 → DFW 08:24F9 3985 8h 28m 70% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON