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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Frontier via MCO, leaving 03:10, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 2h 57m Orlando MCO 09:07 → DTW 11:55F9 2529 8h 45m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 3h 05m Houston IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa 10h 59m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 8h 12m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 1h 26m New York JFK 12:56 → DTW 14:44DL 1654 7h 09m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262 8h 14m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 3h 21m Newark EWR 08:31 → DTW 10:29UA 3700 · flown by Republic 9h 29m 97% 82%
FrontierDetails → SJU 06:57 → MCO 10:20F9 2981 3h 38m Orlando MCO 13:58 → DTW 16:52F9 2713 9h 55m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966 2h 11m New York JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253 8h 54m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON