Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2219 at 01:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2219 SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1990 SJU 19:25 → EWR 23:28 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2219 United Flight history →	SJU 01:00	EWR 05:10	16%	6%	1.1%	85%
UA 2036 United Flight history →	SJU 18:45	EWR 22:55	21%	8%	0.9%	84%
UA 1173 United Flight history →	SJU 13:25	EWR 17:39	23%	10%	0.9%	66%
B6 1990 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 19:25	EWR 23:28	28%	13%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON