Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 3017 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day F9 3017 SJU 06:00 → FLL 08:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 154 SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3017 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:00	FLL 08:48	11%	5%	1.4%	83%
B6 2154 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 09:42	FLL 12:23	15%	8%	0.9%	73%
WN 3897 Southwest	SJU 13:06	FLL 15:57	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 1454 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:05	FLL 16:47	27%	10%	1.0%	70%
B6 154 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 17:00	FLL 19:42	31%	13%	1.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON