Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2024 at 16:55, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2024 United Flight history →	SJU 16:55	IAD 20:56	12%	4%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 31m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	8h 06m	100%	83%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	3h 54m Houston	IAH 14:47 → IAD 18:58UA 1178	11h 58m	100%	82%
Frontier Details →	SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823	2h 02m Orlando	MCO 08:12 → IAD 10:49F9 4230	7h 39m	95%	81%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	50m Newark	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	6h 22m	77%	71%
United Details →	SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173	1h 50m Newark	EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00UA 2677	7h 35m	91%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON