Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1644 United Flight history →	SJU 07:00	IAH 10:53	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 668 United Flight history →	SJU 14:55	IAH 18:51	13%	4%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	9h 27m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 03m	97%	83%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	2h 49m Newark	EWR 07:59 → IAH 10:44UA 332	10h 44m	95%	81%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27AA 1840	7h 47m	89%	70%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 09:42 → FLL 12:23B6 2154	1h 22m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 13:45 → IAH 15:47B6 2379	7h 05m	90%	67%
United Details →	SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173	3h 11m Newark	EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425	11h 18m	96%	66%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 18m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 21:00 → IAH 23:02B6 2779	7h 02m	78%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823	50m Orlando	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:45F9 1417	6h 35m	73%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON