Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: JetBlue via Fort Lauderdale, leaving 09:42, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 3305 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:45	JAX 10:04	12%	7%	1.4%	78%
B6 1742 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 09:55	JAX 13:19	13%	7%	4.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990	7h 39m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → JAX 21:13DL 2265	8h 16m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854	2h 25m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	9h 09m	98%	80%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 17m Houston	IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa	8h 37m	97%	80%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	50m Newark	EWR 06:00 → JAX 08:31UA 1207	7h 31m	77%	71%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780	2h 16m Boston	BOS 20:35 → JAX 23:39DL 5593 · flown by Republic	9h 31m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966	1h 56m New York	JFK 19:15 → JAX 22:17DL 5123 · flown by Endeavor	9h 07m	97%	68%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 10:25 → JFK 14:27B6 904	1h 14m New York	JFK 15:41 → JAX 18:04B6 677	7h 39m	89%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	SJU 00:56 → PHL 05:04F9 2695	54m Philadelphia	PHL 05:58 → JAX 08:19F9 2861	7h 23m	71%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON