Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4962 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4962 SJU 05:01 → MCO 08:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2134 SJU 18:40 → MCO 21:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4962 Southwest	SJU 05:01	MCO 08:14	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3859 Southwest	SJU 06:31	MCO 09:44	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3860 Southwest	SJU 10:11	MCO 13:23	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 2981 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:57	MCO 10:20	10%	4%	1.7%	87%
F9 2867 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:39	MCO 14:01	11%	4%	1.4%	88%
WN 3861 Southwest	SJU 12:36	MCO 15:47	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 04:56	MCO 08:11	12%	6%	1.1%	83%
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:25	MCO 11:40	13%	5%	0.9%	70%
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:10	MCO 14:24	16%	7%	0.9%	73%
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	19%	5%	1.9%	81%
WN 4960 Southwest	SJU 16:11	MCO 19:21	19%	5%	1.6%	no record
F9 1745 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:52	MCO 19:11	22%	7%	2.3%	69%
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:09	MCO 21:21	23%	7%	1.8%	86%
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:44	MCO 17:57	24%	9%	2.6%	81%
B6 2134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:40	MCO 21:53	27%	10%	1.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON