Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3089 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3089 SJU 06:01 → MIA 09:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 967 SJU 16:39 → MIA 19:36 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3089 American Flight history →	SJU 06:01	MIA 09:02	9%	3%	1.0%	97%
AA 3033 American	SJU 10:17	MIA 13:16	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1341 American Flight history →	SJU 11:52	MIA 14:50	14%	6%	1.0%	82%
F9 2283 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 11:51	MIA 14:51	17%	6%	1.3%	77%
AA 1734 American	SJU 14:59	MIA 17:57	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 967 American Flight history →	SJU 16:39	MIA 19:36	26%	11%	1.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON