tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2088 United Flight history → SJU 15:56 ORD 20:15 19% 5% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 3h 04m Houston IAH 13:57 → ORD 16:47UA 1299 10h 47m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 2h 49m Newark EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 9h 43m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 7h 44m 99% 78%
FrontierDetails → SJU 06:00 → FLL 08:48F9 3017 3h 25m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:13 → ORD 14:50F9 2206 9h 50m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:51DL 1139 8h 54m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780 2h 26m Boston BOS 20:45 → ORD 22:39DL 2804 9h 31m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → SJU 11:52 → MIA 14:50AA 1341 2h 10m Miami MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 9h 01m 94% 64%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 12:52 → JFK 16:55B6 1004 3h 19m New York JFK 20:14 → ORD 21:48B6 405 9h 56m 94% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON