Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Norfolk on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	6h 46m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731	9h 33m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	7h 00m	95%	81%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454	3h 43m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:30 → ORF 22:52B6 1800	8h 47m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	48m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:30 → ORF 22:52B6 1800	5h 52m	63%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON