Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1048 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day B6 1048 SJU 07:45 → PHL 11:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1165 SJU 15:10 → PHL 19:08 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1048 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 07:45	PHL 11:46	10%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 621 American	SJU 14:23	PHL 18:38	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 2695 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 00:56	PHL 05:04	26%	11%	1.3%	73%
F9 1725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:52	PHL 23:03	29%	12%	1.2%	60%
F9 1165 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:10	PHL 19:08	34%	11%	0.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON