tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Providence on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 8h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJU 12:57 → ATL 16:51DL 1930 49m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 7h 12m 92% 76%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 08:25 → MCO 11:40B6 1134 2h 22m Orlando MCO 14:02 → PVD 17:08B6 1075 8h 43m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 14m Dulles IAD 22:10 → PVD 23:46UA 6142 · flown by Mesa 6h 51m 93% 67%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454 3h 45m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:32 → PVD 23:44B6 1196 9h 39m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:32 → PVD 23:44B6 1196 6h 44m 64% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON