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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:10, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 11h 50m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 2h 56m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367 9h 06m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30AS 796 3h 28m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 9h 20m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874 1h 33m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 7h 27m 95% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:51 → SEA 14:04AS 664 2h 55m Seattle SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225 8h 47m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399 13h 27m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 06:59 → SEA 08:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Seattle SEA 09:35 → ANC 12:21AS 708 7h 22m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 51m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 6h 50m 74% 59%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30AS 796 51m Seattle SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440 6h 51m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON