Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3866 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3866 SLC 06:21 → AUS 10:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 263 SLC 16:51 → AUS 20:48 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3866 Southwest	SLC 06:21	AUS 10:28	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	AUS 11:25	8%	2%	0.4%	91%
DL 3955 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	AUS 14:50	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 2689 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:19	AUS 17:13	16%	4%	0.4%	88%
DL 2728 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	AUS 21:30	20%	5%	0.5%	82%
WN 263 Southwest	SLC 16:51	AUS 20:48	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON